Three choices

Dr Farrukh Saleem
Choice 1: The South Sudan Model. The 2nd Sudanese Civil War lasted for 22 years during which two million Sudanese were killed. The civil war ended after peace talks resulted in the Naivasha Agreement. Under the agreement, the rebels were to hold a referendum. On July 14, 2011, the General Assembly admitted the Republic of South Sudan as the 193rd member of the United Nations (political autonomy model).

East Timor, over a 24-year period beginning in 1975, suffered more than a hundred thousand insurgency-related deaths. In 1999, a majority of East Timorese voted for independence from Indonesia. On September 27, 2002, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste became the 191st member of the United Nations (political autonomy model).

Grant the TTP the political autonomy it seeks. Release its prisoners and withdraw Pakistani troops. Let the TTP declare independence and establish its Emirate of Waziristan.

Choice 2: The El Salvadoran Model. The conflict between the government of El Salvador and a coalition of guerrilla groups lasted for 12 years and eight months during which 80,000 were killed. In 1992, the Chapultepec Peace Accords were signed under which an amnesty law was legislated and the guerrilla groups agreed to form a political party (assimilation into the mainstream model).

In Nepal, the Nepalese Army and the rebel-led army known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fought a bloody civil war that lasted for 10 years and nine months. War-related casualties stood at around 20,000 killed and 200,000 internally displaced. By 2007, an Army Integration Special Committee was formed under which 3,129 former PLA insurgents agreed to integrate into the Nepalese Army while 6,576 insurgents chose the Voluntary Retirement Scheme (that promised retirement cheques).

Is the TTP willing to abandon its armed struggle, lay down arms and form a political party? Is the TTP willing to assimilate into mainstream Pakistan?

Choice 3: The Sri Lankan Model. The conflict between the Sri Lankan military and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) went on for 26 years (1983-2009). The LTTE demanded an independent state. War-related causalities have been estimated at a hundred thousand and economic cost of around $200 billion.

By 1987, the Sri Lankan army had fought the LTTE down to its knees when India stepped in and gave the LTTE another life. The Sri Lankan government was forced to give concessions to appease the LTTE. The ceasefire of early 1990 was broken when the LTTE killed 600 policemen after the policemen had surrendered. In 1991, LTTE insurgents surrounded a military base and killed a thousand soldiers.

In 1994, the People’s Alliance won elections on a peace platform. In 1995, a ceasefire was agreed but the LTTE broke the ceasefire by bombing two Sri Lankan Navy boats. In 1996, the LTTE killed 1,173 army troops. By 2000, a million Sri Lankans were internally displaced.

In December 2000, the LTTE declared a unilateral ceasefire. In April 2001, the LTTE cancelled the ceasefire. In July 2001, the LTTE’s suicide bombers attacked the Bandaranaike International Airport, destroyed eight air force planes and four Sri Lankan Airlines aircraft.

In the months after the September 11 attacks the LTTE, fearing direct American support for the Sri Lankan military, announced a month-long ceasefire. By October 2003, the LTTE had given up its demand of an independent state and had put up a demand of a self-governing authority in northern and eastern Sri Lanka (with powers to impose their own laws and collect taxes). In December 2005, the LTTE killed 150 government troops. By 2006, the LTTE’s focus had shifted to civilian targets.

On December 8, 2006, the Sri Lankan army undertook a full-fledged military operation. By May 16, 2009, the Sri Lankan army had cleared the entire area held by LTTE insurgents. On May 17, the LTTE admitted defeat.

What do we want? Political autonomy for the TTP? The TTP’s assimilation into the mainstream? The TTP’s complete defeat?

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.